CS875 Unit 5 Discussion Board Posts
Discussion Board 2
CS875 Unit 5 DB 2 Planning and Forecasting
Prediction
What will the future hold? Since the times of Nostradamus, humans have been trying to predict the future. Perhaps this is so that we can feel some sense of power or control over the events that shape our lives or perhaps so that we profit from these future changes. Having the eyes of a seer and being able to truly see into the future has not yet been proven possible (Smile J ), but it is possible to look at technologies that exist today and to try and forecast how those technologies may be applied in the future.
Who are the people that make these predictions, and can they be taken seriously is a question I asked myself while conducting research for this assignment. I found that the most likely predictors of the future include academics (of course, we would use the power of our super brains to predict the future, lol), government agencies, and futurists. The predictions range from the absurd to the reasonable, and USA Today has published a listing of the top 20 predictions for 2020. I thought it would be fun to look at these predictions and to look at them from the vantage point of 2022.
The prediction I selected to discuss is related to voting. I have voted in every election since my 18th birthday and believe that voting is every American citizen's fundamental right and responsibility. Regardless of your political party, each citizen should weigh the events of their day, select the best candidate that represents their view on the issue, and vote for them. Unfortunately, not everyone has the physical ability to get from their home to a voting booth, and unfortunately, there are some concerns over election integrity. According to USA Today, the prediction was that “Americans will vote electronically from home (USA Today, 2020).” According to USA Today, Peter Schwartz and Joel Hyatt, in their book “The Art of the Long View,” had forecasted that as the millennial generation comes of age, they will lead in an era of voting electronically from home (USA Today, 2020). Certainly, the vision of everyone in the US voting from home is interesting.
Forces of Impact
As a proponent of voting from home technology myself, I can personally see the benefit in everyone having a voting app that uses biometric identifiers to validate the user, records their vote through an encrypted channel, and signs the vote with a digital certificate. I have often thought that if my bank's mobile app is secure enough to handle financial transactions, then a mobile app certainly could be used to cast and record a vote. The forces that could affect the use of voting from home technology are both technical and societal in nature. The ongoing security of biometric identifiers for access control, strong encryption algorithms, and trustworthy digital certificates would be needed to support the use of a mobile voting app. However, the biggest force of impact would be society and politicians. Would lawmakers permit mobile app technology to record votes, and would society embrace its use? There are several examples of Voatz mobile voting being used in West Virginia to record absentee votes for military personnel stationed overseas (USA Today,2020) and in Utah, with the Voatz app being used by citizens with a disability to vote in the 2019 municipal general election. Although developing and distributing the technology needed for mobile voting may be the easiest barrier to overcome, the real force of resistance is the fear of election tampering. Perhaps if I am as lucky as Queen Elizabeth is and get to live to age 96, I may vote in the presidential election of 2060 from my Apple Watch. J
References
USA Today. (2020). 2020 Predictions. Retrieved from USA Today: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/12/22/2020-predictions-decades-ago-self-driving-cars-mars-voting/2594825001/
Discussion Board 1:
CS875 Unit 5 D.B. 1- Planning and Forecasting
Traditional Forecasting
In business, managers need to forecast the future to foresee the likely trajectory of the business and make decisions today in support of the business objectives. When a business leader plots onto a line the trajectory of the business based on where it is today and models best-case / worst-case projections, this is called traditional forecasting (Wade, 2014). For example, I may project sales growth by taking my current sales of $100,000 and assuming a 20% growth rate or a 10% loss. I would then plot a line that shows a flat line in the middle for the $100,000 and $120,000 as my upper control limit / top line and $90,000 as my lower control limit or bottom line. We would then list the planning assumptions that would provide for growth or result in loss. This model of traditional forecasting has been used by managers as a planning tool and a guide for business strategy and has the advantage of being useful for near-term financial planning needs but lacks the ability to truly model different ways the future may develop.
Scenario Planning
Unlike the traditional forecasting model that plots the future on a line and models best-case / worst-case scenarios, scenario planning seeks to bring attention to different ways the future might realistically develop. Like traditional forecasting, it is also a useful planning tool for managers. The scenario planning methodology goes beyond traditional forecasting by adding an analysis of the P.E.S.T. that affect a business (Wade, 2014). P.E.S.T. represents the external forces that affect business strategy, including political changes, economical movements, societal changes, and technology trends (Wade, 2014). Examples include laws, regulations, new technologies, changes in attitudes, and different competitors. Within this framework, organizations will define the forces that affect them and then make a short list of the most critical uncertainties (Wade, 2014). When two critical forces are identified, they will be plotted on a cross chart depicting each uncertainty's extremes. The four quadrants represent the four most likely scenarios that could play out based on those two critical uncertainties (Frum, 2013). The scenarios created within each quadrant represent stories of how a certain future might happen. In this regard, it is similar to traditional forecasting in using planning assumptions. However, scenario planning is not really using planning assumptions as it identifies likely events that may create an effect that will move the organization in one direction or another. Scenario planning does not seek to make a prophecy that any certain future will happen but rather shows what future scenarios may be possible based on a myriad of different forces. Scenario planning is a useful tool for business leaders to use when developing their strategic plans and can help them prepare for various possible futures.
References
Frum, R. (2013, August 6). Word association of newspapers scenario planning. Personal Expert System. http://personalexpertsystem.blogspot.com/2013/08/world-association-of-newspapers.html
Wade, W. [G.L.O.B.I.S.???]. (2014, September 3). Woody Wade: "Scenario planning" - Thinking differently about future innovation [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKhUKHzE8hk
CS875 Unit 4 IP
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Think Tank Methods 2 –Game-Changing Ideas
Michael Pry
Colorado Technical University
CS875 Futuring and Innovation
Dr. Calongne
September 4, 2022
They say necessity is the mother of invention, and many significant innovations have come about because they were driven by necessity. However, some inventions resulted from errors or mistakes that provided a breakthrough discovery later built upon to become something useful. "Innovation is usually a process rather than a single flash of inspiration (Tidd, 2021) ." The accidental discovery may provide the "flash" to get a fire started. Still, there is a process of innovation that will transform the breakthrough discovery into something useful and marketable (Tidd, 2021). True innovation is driven by the ability of the person making the discovery to see the opportunity for how the discovery could be applied. Perhaps to some, a mistake or error is simply a mistake, and the results should be discarded. The innovator's spirit exists where the results produced by an error or mistake are seen to have a potential application for something good or useful.
One story of innovation by accident is the story of penicillin. Sir Alexander Fleming, a scientist, working in London out of St. Mary's hospital in 1928, had returned from a holiday to discover something amazing as he sorted through Petri dishes that contained colonies of Staphylococcus bacteria known to cause sore throats, abscessed and boils. One of the dishes looked odd. This dish was dotted with colonies except for a section where mold was growing. The area around the mold was not growing. The mold was later identified as a rare strain of Penicillium notatum and had been introduced into the petri dish by accident. This discovery resulted in Sir Fleming redirecting the focus of his research, and he would later learn that the mold had secreted something that stopped the growth of bacteria (American Chemical Society, 1999). Through his additional research, Sir Fleming identified a substance he called "mold juice" and that it was capable of killing many forms of harmful bacteria. Some examples of the forms of bacteria it could kill included meningococcus, streptococcus, and diphtheria.
As with all discoveries, Sir Fleming knew that for his findings to be helpful, he would need to successfully overcome the problematic issue of isolating pure penicillin from the mold juice (American Chemical Society, 1999). He found his attempts at isolation to be very difficult because the mold juice was very unstable (American Chemical Society, 1999). Sir Fleming's early successes were limited and only applicable to crude material. Unsurprising, Sir Fleming realized he could not take his discovery to mass use on his own; he was able to take it as far as isolating penicillin-insensitive bacteria from penicillin-sensitive bacteria in a mixed culture (American Chemical Society, 1999). Sir Fleming's contribution provided a practical benefit to bacteriologists, which allowed the momentum of his discovery to carry forward. Much like a baton being passed in a relay race, Harold Raistrick picked up the next phase of work. A Biochemistry professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, he attempted to purify penicillin but failed (American Chemical Society, 1999).
At this point in history, we can take a moment to reflect on the lessons learned from Sir Fleming's experience. First, we see that his discovery came about by accident. An error in the sterilization procedures of his petri dish allowed for a form of mold to be introduced to his sample. The first lesson in innovation is that Sir Fleming had the eyes to see the discovery, meaning he had the psychological attentiveness to observe a change from an expected state of being to a new form of being. He also had a sense of curiosity to investigate his observation and the educational background to understand the value of what he observed. From an innovation perspective, it was Sir Fleming's traits to have the ability to observe, the curiosity to explore, and the wisdom to find use in what he discovered that provided the fertile soil for the innovation of modern penicillin to advance to its usefulness today. In addition, we see that the use of the petri dish helped to foster the discovery of "mold juice." The lesson to be understood from this example is that future innovations are made possible by past innovations. Had the petri dish not been discovered and put to use, the "mold juice" would not have been discovered either. The innovations of the past will "create opportunity by pushing the frontiers of science forward (Tidd, 2021)."
The story of penicillin's innovation does not end with Sir Fleming. Still, the figurative hand-off of the baton went to Howard Florey, Ernst Chain, and Sir William Dunn at Oxford's Universities School of Pathology (American Chemical Society, 1999). It was through Oxford's teamwork that penicillin became a lifesaving drug. The timing for their discovery would coincide with one of the world's greatest demands for lifesaving antibiotics, World War 2. The demand provided by World War 2 helped society overcome the fear of the unknown and embrace and then popularize the use of penicillin. This demand would need to be supported with new manufacturing processes so that the volume of penicillin needed by society could be produced. At first, the Oxford labs were the production facility. Later, a biochemist named Norman Heatley extracted penicillin from large volumes of filtrate from amyl acetate and then back into water that used a counter-current system (American Chemical Society, 1999). The lesson learned from this example is that the usefulness of any discovery not only requires the discovery to evolve into something useful, but it must also be a repeatable process that can be manufactured in such a way as to meet a certain amount of demand in society. Manufacturing processes and technologies thus become a key component of innovation.
With any story of innovation comes a group of heroes that took risks and became the pioneers that the rest of society would follow. Albert Alexander may not be a common household name, but Albert was a pioneer in the sense that he was the first human to receive Oxford penicillin (American Chemical Society, 1999). After receiving an infected cut, he received the first dose of penicillin and, within a few days, had made a remarkable recovery (American Chemical Society, 1999). This success led to other doses of penicillin being administered with similar positive results. The first large-scale use of penicillin was made available to British troops with battlefield injuries (American Chemical Society, 1999). The companies that helped manufacture penicillin in World War 2 are still in existence today, with Glaxo Smith Cline and Pfizer being two examples (American Chemical Society, 1999).
With any innovation, there are a series of forces that support the innovation. At first, these forces are the results of past innovations. These may include tools people use, processes they follow, or techniques that have been found to produce useful outcomes. A scientist would not have a lab if houses were not discovered. Chemicals used in the lab could not be maintained at a safe temperature if a refrigerator had not been discovered. Humans could not communicate if language were not discovered. We can conclude the innovations of today are built on discoveries of yesterday. Other forces that drive innovation are needed. A discovery of something no one needs will not result in that innovation finding a useful purpose, so the need is a force of innovation. Another, which is very powerful force of innovation, is a shared body of knowledge. This body of knowledge may be built through journal publications, research findings, or other documents. Still, a discovery's knowledge must be shared for others to build upon it. Finally, we have the force of manufacturing that must work out the technology and processes that will be followed to produce the thing that is the product of the innovation.
An example is a modern car. At first, it was a discovery enjoyed by only a few people, and it took a lot of time to manufacture. Henry Ford innovated the assembly line and made manufacturing efficient and the mass manufacturing of cars possible. This mass manufacturing process made cars accessible to the average person, transforming society. The success of car manufacturing alone is only part of the story; innovations in road construction and gas stations supported the success of Henry Ford's discoveries. A conclusion that can be reached from studying the forces that act upon innovation is that innovation is like an eco-system with many parts coming together to create something beautiful
An error, a discovery, and a chain of innovation leading up to mass production is the story that many innovations share. Observation leads to a discovery, the discovery-driven by curiosity finds useful purpose, and brave pioneers led the way in setting an example of finding use in the innovation and demonstrating that this use can be obtained with minimal risk. Later other people follow and build upon the innovation, providing cycles of discovery that bring us to the end of that innovation and its transformation into something new and future discoveries. A simple error may very well set off a chain of events that becomes the salvation for humankind.
References
American Chemical Society. (1999, November 19). Discovery and Development of Penicillin. Retrieved from ACS.org: https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/education/whatischemistry/landmarks/flemingpenicillin.html
Tidd, J. &. (2021). Managing innovation: Integrating technological, market, and organizational change. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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